Political polarization can undermine democratic governance by weakening electoral accountability through biases in voter information consumption and processing. A growing literature, primarily from high-income countries, has identified promising interventions to reduce negative affect toward out-partisans, though evidence regarding their downstream effects remains mixed. We evaluate whether these depolarizing interventions and an open-mindedness nudge that increases awareness of information-processing biases stemming from emotions or partisanship promote counter-attitudinal information consumption and internalization in a survey of nearly 2,500 participants from a nationally representative panel in Mexico, a heavily polarized context. Videos designed to correct misperceptions about out-partisans improved trust in opposition media, while those designed to foster empathy or emphasize shared identities reduced partisan polarization. Although none of the videos affected immediate counter-attitudinal news consumption, exposure to either the corrective video or the open-mindedness nudge led to greater partisan attitudinal updating when participants were exposed to a counter-attitudinal news article. This effect is due to reduced partisan perceptions of the article rather than increased factual retention of its information. These findings provide insights into the potential and limitations of scalable interventions to improve citizens’ ability to consume and process politically relevant information across partisan lines.

In the past two decades, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially in Latin America and Asia, have seen a rise in ideological and affective polarization, along with democratic backsliding. Yet, research on the drivers of such polarization’s rise and persistence remains limited. We identify three general informational drivers of polarization systematically present in LMICs. First, echo chambers foster and reinforce false beliefs about opposing groups. Second, while diverse media could counterpolarization, the dominance of biased traditional, digital and social media has deepened it. Third, divisive political elites using hostile rhetoric and incivility exacerbate polarization by amplifying social and political divides. We highlight opportunities to further our understanding of the empirical relevance of these mechanisms in LMICs, as well as interventions informed by these mechanisms to counter polarization.

Political polarisation has been rising sharply in both advanced and developing democracies, with implications for democratic accountability, institutional trust, and social cohesion. This VoxDevLit reviews recent empirical research on the causes and consequences of polarisation, with a focus on implications for low- and middle-income countries. We highlight structural and institutional drivers of polarisation, as well as the role of elite strategies and changes in the information environment, particularly the role of digital and social media. We also cover a growing body of research that identifies promising interventions to counter polarisation. These range from institutional reforms to shifts in media consumption and exposure, to social contact and psychological nudges at the individual level. We assess which interventions reduce polarisation, whether effects are sustained, and how results vary by context. We conclude by identifying gaps in the literature and the importance of adapting polarisation research to the political realities of low- and middle-income countries.

We study the political behavior of Americans with immigrant backgrounds, a growing group that accounts for over 20% of eligible voters. Using voter registration records from three states that report birthplace, we characterize voting registration patterns among 7 million naturalized and second-generation immigrants relative to U.S.-born whites between 2014 and 2024. We document a broad Republican realignment among immigrant-background Americans. We then examine whether rising unauthorized immigration, a salient development of the past decade, contributed to this shift. Using Mexican consular data on migrant flows from Mexican municipalities to U.S. counties and origin push shocks, we construct predicted county-level inflows of unauthorized migrants. We find that counties with larger undocumented inflows experienced greater increases in Republican registration among naturalized and second-generation voters relative to U.S.-born whites in the same county and year. These effects are strongest among Hispanic voters. We provide suggestive evidence that both economic competition and social mechanisms related to status and fairness are consistent with these patterns.

We study the political and socioeconomic impacts of unauthorized Mexican migration
to the United States. Our shift-share identification strategy combines variation in migration inflows and migrant networks using novel data to capture unauthorized migrants, a group that is theoretically and empirically distinct from authorized and “low-skill” migrants. We document a conservative response across US counties. Unauthorized migration increases the vote share of Republican candidates and support for conservative legislation. It decreases local total public expenditure, but increases funds for law-and-order. We find strong evidence that individuals who are exposed to unauthorized migration change their political behavior, ideology, and preferences, and weaker evidence that the rightward shift is due to changes in the electorate and negative labor market effects. Suggestive evidence indicates the reaction is weaker in areas with more robust redistribution and safety nets.

Press coverage: How the surge in migration to the U.S. might affect 2024 (The Washington Post), Immigration Backlash (Marginal Revolution), Why Biden Needs an Immigration Deal (The New York Times), The two sides of immigration backlash (The Science of Politics)

Awards: Robert H. Durr and co-winner of the Best Paper in Political Behavior (MPSA)

We study how unemployment shocks in the US affect Mexican households’ migration decisions. We emphasize households at origin (as opposed to individuals) as the migration decision-making units. We show that negative changes in US labor market conditions, which diffuse through household members at destination to those at origin, generate a stronger reaction from more skilled Mexican households that have members abroad than less skilled households. We argue that the relative magnitudes of income and substitution effects drive this differential response across households with varying skill levels. These results also inform the literature on selection patterns in international migration, which suggests a new channel through which negative shocks in the host economy negatively affect the skill composition of subsequent migrants.

This paper studies politically mismatched couples among American voters. We assemble registration records for around 60 million couples between 2014 and 2024 and document that those with different party registrations are over 14% less likely to remain together by the following election. This pattern is consistent across states and robust to a host of other couple characteristics and local conditions. We identify the role of politically salient environments using the sudden criminalization of abortion in 13 states between the 2020 and 2022 elections. Compared to states that did not ban abortion, newly formed mismatched couples were over 11% less likely to remain together in 2022, with no significant previous or subsequent differences. Matched couples are not more likely to separate in treated states, and mismatched couples in states with abortion bans in 2023 and 2024 are not affected in 2022.

We estimate the impact of the foreign aid program UGDP on electoral outcomes and civic attitudes in Bangladeshi Upazilas (sub-districts). We exploit the selection rules by implementing a regression discontinuity design, comparing otherwise identical sub-districts during the program’s first years. Participating in UGDP has an imprecise null effect on voting behavior in parliamentary elections and a significant and negative effect on civic attitudes, suggesting capture by the dominant party.